I'm a hopeless and incorrigible optimist. In my universe England are always going to win the World Cup and slay Australia in the Ashes (you see, sometimes it works.) But I'm not buying into all this "phew, we got away with it" hysteria about the end of the recession. On the economy I am a fairly gloomy "double dipp-ist.".

Yes, the official figures will say that recession ended at the end of September but that doesn't mean the good times are back. After the V-shape, the U-shape and the bath-shaped downturns, some economists are now talking about the "square root sign" recession. That is a sharp fall in output followed by a small bounce and then a period of stagnation when GDP is flat for some time.

Personally I'm not sure the square root comparison works. The mathematical sign has a short downstroke followed by a longer upstroke, hardly the expected pattern for this recession. I prefer to think of it as the "heart-beat" recession. The classic ECG monitor of the rhythm of the heart shows a peak, a sharp fall, a small recovery then flat-lining until the next heartbeat. Got it?

Blimey all this heavy duty economics is making my pulse race. Anyway whatever convoluted comparison fits best my feeling is that Britain's borrowing addiction, which had remained remarkably unaffected for much of the year, finally ended over the summer.

The remorseless rise in redundancies and the huge competition for the few jobs that are out there means that more familes are asking the "what if" question. They will rein in spending and seek to pay down debt as a defensive measure  - just in case. Just look at the West End sales slump - the worst since 7/7 - reported in the Standard today.

This week will be a good reality check with the City braced for dismal figures on unemployment and the public finances. The Government might be giving the electorate the V-sign over the recovery. Me, I think these green shoots amount to the square root of sod all.