Dr Pangloss Writes: Depression, what Depression?
On balance I like to take an upbeat view of events. But on the prospects for the economy some of my unkinder colleagues say I have gone too far. They call me Dr Pangloss, likening me to a blinkered "recession denier" who cannot see that we all going to hell in a handcart.
But I still don't get it. It still doesn't smell like Armageddon to me. So here's just a few pointers - some anecdotal I admit - that suggest that there's life left in this economy yet.
First, another colleague tried to book a West End dinner for himself and his better half last week. Restaurant bookings are one of those "canary" indicators that tell you early in the cycle that the economy's in trouble. Yet,the first ten places he tried were fully booked. Eventually he was offered a table...at 5.30pm or 10.30pm. There is still money out there.
Second, almost every leading litmus paper test of global recession has refused to turn red. This week a new all time record for an Impressionist painting was set in New York. There's still money for Monets. In the last major downturn you couldn't give Van Goghs away.
Third, where are the horror stories about deserted London high streets? They don't exist. Sure it's tough out there, but by all accounts the West End was heaving over the Bank Holiday weekend. Try telling the tourists from France, Spain and Italy spending their over valued Euros that the end of world is nigh.
Fourth, unemployment remain obstinately at record lows. There has been something of a shake out in the City of course. But how many of those people losing their jobs in investment bank are joining the ranks of the long-term jobless? Most will be re-absorbed realtively quickly and can live off the fat of their bonuses and redundancies in the meantime. The London economy is, thanks to the huge foreign work-force sucked into the capital during the boom years, a far more flexible beast than in the Eighties. Norman Tebbit urged the unemployed to get on their bikes and look for work. Now if the work dries up they will trudge down to Victoria coach station and go back to Gdansk and Bratislava.
Fith, yes London property prices are down, but are they down by much? And how far are they heading? The indicators suggest that have fallen a few percentage points since the peak. Given they have put on 180 per cent over the past decade, that is scarcely the stuff of nightmares. There is certainly no sign of the predicted collapse. The doomsters said that overstretched buy-to-let landlords would lead the rout. Yet rents are up. Landlords have rarely had it so good as wannabee first time buyers bide their time and build up their deposits. The detonator that sets off a property market demolition has still not been primed. Does anyone know of people who are so desperate they are having to sell at a huge loss? I'm sure there's a few out there but I haven't met any.
I could go on. My feeling is that this is the last and most severe of the financial spasms of the past decade or so that the real economy has been largely able to take on the chin. The days when a slight wobble in the British economy meant a Ravenscraig or a Corby would close down with tens of thousands of job losses have long gone.
Dr Pangloss's prediction is that once the anniversary of the Northern Rock crisis is out of the way in September the great credit crunch will start to fade from people's memories. It's not going to be a vintage year but a new Depression? I wouldn't bank on it.




