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07 May 2008 11:17 AM

Dr Pangloss Writes: Depression, what Depression?

On balance I like to take an upbeat view of events. But on the prospects for the economy some of my unkinder colleagues say I have gone too far. They call me Dr Pangloss, likening me to a blinkered "recession denier" who cannot see that we all going to hell in a handcart.

But I still don't get it. It still doesn't smell like Armageddon to me. So here's just a few pointers - some anecdotal I admit - that suggest that there's life left in this economy yet.

First, another colleague tried to book a West End dinner for himself and his better half last week. Restaurant bookings are one of those "canary" indicators that tell you early in the cycle that the economy's in trouble. Yet,the first ten places he tried were fully booked. Eventually he was offered a table...at 5.30pm or 10.30pm. There is still money out there.

Second, almost every leading litmus paper test of global recession has refused to turn red. This week a new all time record for an Impressionist painting was set in New York. There's still money for Monets. In the last major downturn you couldn't give Van Goghs away.

Third, where are the horror stories about deserted London high streets? They don't exist. Sure it's tough out there, but by all accounts the West End was heaving over the Bank Holiday weekend. Try telling the tourists from France, Spain and Italy spending their over valued Euros that the end of world is nigh.

Fourth, unemployment remain obstinately at record lows. There has been something of a shake out in the City of course. But how many of those people losing their jobs in investment bank are joining the ranks of the long-term jobless? Most will be re-absorbed realtively quickly and can live off the fat of their bonuses and redundancies in the meantime. The London economy is, thanks to the huge foreign work-force sucked into the capital during the boom years, a far more flexible beast than in the Eighties. Norman Tebbit urged the unemployed to get on their bikes and look for work. Now if the work dries up they will trudge down to Victoria coach station and go back to Gdansk and Bratislava.

Fith, yes London property prices are down, but are they down by much?  And how far are they heading? The indicators suggest that have fallen a few percentage points since the peak. Given they have put on 180 per cent over the past decade, that is scarcely the stuff of nightmares. There is certainly no sign of the predicted collapse. The doomsters said that overstretched buy-to-let landlords would lead the rout. Yet rents are up. Landlords have rarely had it so good as wannabee first time buyers bide their time and build up their deposits. The detonator that sets off a property market demolition has still not been primed. Does anyone know of people who are so desperate they are having to sell at a huge loss? I'm sure there's a few out there but I haven't met any.

I could go on. My feeling is that this is the last and most severe of the financial spasms of the past decade or so that the real economy has been largely able to take on the chin. The days when a slight wobble in the British economy meant a Ravenscraig or a Corby would close down with tens of thousands of job losses have long gone.

Dr Pangloss's prediction is that once the anniversary of the Northern Rock crisis is out of the way in September the great credit crunch will start to fade from people's memories. It's not going to be a vintage year but a new Depression? I wouldn't bank on it.

 

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Comments

Damian Hockney

Agree entirely - friends of mine who are anti-American keep telling me that the US is either "in deep recession" or "perilously on the edge of it". They have been saying this for a couple of years. They've aded their prejudices to a partially digested concoction of economic half truths and come up with what they want. I simply ask them to look at the varying figures for economic growth and ask if they can find a single one that says a recession has arrived. A lot is emotional - if you want to prove that, say, a country like the US is bad and mad, then you grasp at straws which tell you that everything is a disaster "so it serves them right". Facts need not apply. And there's an element of that here - we are all rather tired with the Government, and anyone who tells us things are awful gets a muted thumbs up. In fact there are some awkward signs, and the Government could cock it all up by encouraging businesses to go off to Qatar or wherever by anti-business policies...but you are right that it hasn't actually happened YET and need not.

Seamus Graham

Nice to read a blog thats not all doom and gloom regarding the economy and housing prices.

Please check out my blog entitled: Handyman Services, The Credit Crunch & Falling Property Prices, http://silversaintsblog.blogspot.com/.

Val Daniels

What a pleasant change to read some sensible comments. I'm sick to death of the press talking the UK economy down, mainly for political gain. I live in Spain and in the same way that the UK catches a cold when USA sneezes, Spain suffers when the UK economy is in the doldrums. Despite what you read in the newspapers, life is pretty much normal here. People are still coming for long golfing weekends. The apartments next to ours are occupied every week by different people from the UK. Yes, the housing market has slowed down because the Brits are not raising equity from their UK property to buy a second home here at the moment, but hotel and rental bookings are higher than last year, and the English SUR tells us that 2008 will be a bumper summer. Food is about the same as last year, petrol a tad higher, but still only 1 euro a litre! The UK will come through this glitch, and everyone will be wondering what the fuss was about. I am 70 but I can remember the recession in the early 90s when interest rates were sky high, and house prices dropped like a stone. Inflation was at 15% and rising. There were 4 million unemployed, my husband, who is now 74, was one of them. We got through that by the skin of our teeth, but some of our friends lost their homes. That is why I say, recession, what recession! Val Daniels. Mijas Costa, Spain

anon

I think we went into decline around 2003, when our major public institutions began falsifying their records and the Audit Commission began produsing glib "its all happy here" reports about failing councils, and claiming that the Labour Govt had done wonders. Corruption and propert y development appear to be the only "industry" left in the London area. Where there were local family businesses and shops, the excessive council tax has driven them out and now we have in the poor areas the look of ghettos (internet and international phone calls shops or hairdressers which are constantly full of people). The employment figures are low because in shoddy london boroughs they just falsify the figures, and if you find out and question where the AUDIT COMMISSION got its figures from exactly, you discover the Audit Commission is quite happy to accept the word of a "consultant" hired by the council to say ...well whatever the ruling councillors want them to say, and it gets repeated verbatim by the AUdit Commission. If you discover a clear fraud (like the suspitious £22 million 'lost' money from housing in Haringey) then you can tell the Audit Commision and they will pass it back to the council and that will be the end of hearing about that....

there is a major recession hitting us because councils have spent so much money on useless publicity claiming great work has been done and in reality they are shoddier and more damaging than before. Haringey says it is "on target" for clean streets but the GMB union says its streets are the "dirtiest in the country". As I look at the dumped sofa in the street that has sat there for three weeks I tend to believe the GMB desptie the £33,000 the COuncil spends on a magazine to tell me otherwise.

geoff

val i think you are wishing it was not true but in your little corner of the world house prices are down 30% and soon to be here..the party is over.people are sick to the back teeth of debt because they have just got the message that it all needs to be paid back...and houses are no longer cash machines..

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